More on climate models

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[mddorogi]

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Where the warming comes from...

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How well the climate models track reality



http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_Ch08.pdf

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Short term projections

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Water Vapor Feedback Loop Will Cause Accelerated Global Warming, Professor Warns

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090219152132.htm

ScienceDaily (Feb. 20, 2009)

Andrew Dessler, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences who specializes in research on climate, says that warming due to increases in greenhouse gases will lead to higher humidity in the atmosphere. And because water vapor itself is a greenhouse gas, this will cause additional warming. This process is known as water vapor feedback and is responsible for a significant portion of the warming predicted to occur over the next century.

“It’s a vicious cycle – warmer temperatures mean higher humidity, which in turn leads to even more warming,� Dessler explains.

The perspective by Dessler and co-author Steven Sherwood of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales is published in the journal Science. In the article, they review and summarize the peer-reviewed evidence in support of a strong water vapor feedback and conclude that the evidence supporting it is overwhelming.....

“For years, there was a debate over this mechanism, with some even questioning if the water vapor feedback existed at all. But recent work on this feedback has moved its existence and strength beyond argument,� Dessler adds.....


“Everything shows that the climate models are probably getting the water vapor feedback right,.....

[xracer]

[xracer]

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Global warming skeptics used to claim the earth was not warming, the warming was an artifact of instrumentation and the urban heat island effect their favorite boogeyman. The scientific basis for this rested mostly on the UAH satellite data which showed no warming 1979 into the late 90s. Only a minority of scientists believed the original satellite data because it was contrary to ocean temperature changes as well as surface temperatures on land and sea and contrary to observed effects of warming like melting glaciers, a shrinking polar icecap and rising sea levels; ie the satellite data was the odd man out.

It was later found that this was caused by a drift problem in the satellite data; this and the small time period covered by the satellite record swamped the warming trend with noise and data bias. The errors were found in the satellite data, the problems corrected and behold the satellites also showed warming. This ended "the globe isn't warming" debate within the scientific community, though it still survives among the less educated skeptics and amongst the professional and zealous amateur GW Deniers.




We now have a 30 year record of satellite data of the troposphere temperature to compare to the surface temperature measurements. You can see they show a nearly identical warming trend. Statistically speaking, we can't say with high confidence whether the surface or troposphere trend is larger or whether they are identical, but we can say they are close to each other and the surface and troposphere have warmed over this period.

You can also see the variance in the annual temperatures about the trend is almost 3x larger in the troposphere than the surface temperature; since it is in the troposphere where the GHG solar amplification takes place, a wider swing in troposphere temperatures were expected by climate theorists.

These and many other data are the reason scientist now say global warming is "unequivocal".

[jdeere5220]

I for one have never claimed that the earth has not warmed. Nor would I claim the earth has not cooled. Of course it has done both, many times.

Looks to me like it has even done both in the chart you are showing us.

I just doubt that mankind has had much to do with it.
_________________
Maxim M250 outdoor corn/pellet burner
Old Beat-up Gravity Box
I support Global Warming

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Heat Waves Commonplace in the US by 2039

ScienceDaily (July 9, 2010) — Exceptionally long heat waves and other hot events could become commonplace in the United States in the next 30 years, according to a new study by Stanford University climate scientists.


http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/07/100708122617.htm